In a recent article, Sean Pratt from the Western Producer discusses the anticipated large spring wheat crop in the United States for 2024 and its implications for Canadian growers. Key points include:
**Forecasts and Yield Estimates**: Scouts from the Wheat Quality Council’s 2024 Hard Spring and Durum Wheat Tour predict a bumper crop in the U.S., with an average yield of 54.5 bushels per acre in North Dakota. This represents a 15% increase over the previous year and is the highest estimate since 1992. However, it’s slightly below the USDA’s forecast of 56 bushels per acre, which would be a record for the state.
**Durum Wheat**: The tour estimates an average durum yield of 45.3 bushels per acre, slightly higher than the previous year’s 43.9.
**Uniformly Good Crops**: The crops across the state are reported to be uniformly good, a rare occurrence according to Dave Green, the council’s executive vice-president.
**Crop Conditions**: As of July 28, 74% of the U.S. spring wheat was rated good to excellent, up from 42% the previous year.
**Concerns and Potential Issues**: Jim Peterson from the North Dakota Wheat Commission mentioned the need for favorable weather to achieve the high yield potential. Concerns include disease pressure in wet areas and heat damage in dry areas.
**Protein Levels**: Despite initial concerns about protein levels due to high input costs and dry conditions in spring, late-season heat and stress might boost protein content. The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop has an average protein content of 12.2%, slightly below last year but above the five-year average.
**Market Dynamics**: U.S. producers had hoped for a price increase due to global issues such as Russia’s problems and quality issues in the EU and Canada. However, high-protein old-crop spring wheat stocks are now entering the system, possibly mitigating the impact of lower-than-expected new crop protein levels.
**International Demand**: Demand for high protein wheat from the U.S. is strong, especially from the EU, which needs to offset poor quality wheat from its Baltic region, and Mexico, which blends U.S. wheat with Russian imports.
**Domestic vs. International Demand**: While domestic demand is tepid, strong international demand, particularly from the EU and Mexico, is expected to support prices.
The article highlights the optimistic outlook for the U.S. spring wheat crop but also notes the uncertainties related to weather and disease pressures that could impact the final outcomes.
For the full article click here: U.S. expects big spring wheat crop | The Western Producer
Source: The Western Producer
