Crop markets follow weather, tariffs, currency fluctuations
This article discusses the outlook for crop markets in early 2025, highlighting several key factors influencing production and trade.
- South American Production: South American crop prospects are generally positive, with Brazil’s soybean harvest expected to reach 169 million tonnes, potentially increasing to 171 million. Argentina anticipates a larger crop as well, though recent dry weather poses risks.
- La Niña Impact: The La Niña phenomenon may affect rainfall patterns in Argentina and southern Brazil, though its anticipated impact is considered weak.
- Indonesia’s Palm Oil Mandate: Indonesia plans to increase its palm oil fuel mandate from 35% to 40%, which, if implemented, could support global vegetable oil prices.
- U.S. Crop Production: The U.S. soybean crop is estimated at 4.366 billion bushels, lower than expected, which has bolstered prices. Corn production estimates have also been reduced.
- Currency and Trade Tensions: The Canadian dollar has weakened due to U.S. tariff threats and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts. The potential for renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China is raising concerns about soybean exports.
Overall, while crop production is expected to be robust, geopolitical and economic factors, including tariffs and currency fluctuations, may create volatility in the markets.
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Crop markets follow weather, tariffs, currency fluctuations | The Western Producer
